The minimal residual disease market is drawing growing attention from diagnostic developers, laboratories and oncology providers seeking earlier, more precise signals of treatment response. According to Polaris Market Research, the global MRD testing market was valued at USD 2.38 billion in 2025 and is expected to record a CAGR of 13.1% from 2026 to 2034, with a 2026 estimate of USD 2.69 billion and a projected USD 7.20 billion by 2034. This article examines the MRD testing technologies behind that trajectory and what they mean for B2B stakeholders.

What MRD Testing Detects

Minimal residual disease refers to the small number of cancer cells that remain after treatment, too few for standard tests to detect. MRD testing is mainly used in blood cancers such as leukemia and lymphoma. Blood or bone marrow is analyzed with highly sensitive assays, and the results help doctors understand treatment response, estimate the risk of cancer returning, and decide on future treatment and monitoring. This is why healthcare providers are investing more in MRD testing: it shows how far a patient's cancer cells have responded to treatment and picks up minimal disease that conventional tests miss. The laboratory result shows whether residual disease is present and, where possible, quantifies it, after which the physician interprets the findings to set the care strategy.

MRD Testing Versus Traditional Monitoring

Polaris Market Research's comparison explains why providers are paying attention. MRD testing can detect one cancer cell in 100,000 to 1,000,000 normal cells, while imaging and standard biomarkers require a tumor mass of millions of cells. It can flag disease months to years before clinical relapse, whereas traditional monitoring is reactive. The trade-off is cost, listed at USD 500 to 3,000+ per assay, against lower costs and established reimbursement for conventional methods.

Flow Cytometry: The Established Leader

Flow cytometry dominated the minimal residual disease market by test technique in 2025 with a 34.8% share, owing to its high sensitivity and broad applicability. Detection rests on identifying immunophenotypic combinations that appear on leukemic cells but not on healthy hematopoietic cells. Depending on the setup, flow cytometry can find one cancer cell among 10,000 to 100,000 healthy bone-marrow cells, with results available in less than a day. The report notes that numerous investigations have shown strong correlations between MRD levels measured by flow cytometry during clinical remission and treatment outcomes. It lists rapid turnaround and wide availability as advantages, and lower sensitivity versus NGS and a need for fresh samples as limitations.

𝐁𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐬𝐞 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬:

https://www.polarismarketresearch.com/industry-analysis/minimal-residual-disease-market 

Next-Generation Sequencing and PCR

Next-generation sequencing is expected to register a CAGR of 16.2% during the forecast period, driven by its ability to detect multiple genetic markers with high sensitivity. Continuing advances in sequencing are anticipated to shorten turnaround time and improve accuracy, while the expansion of the personalized medicine biomarkers market is expected to lift demand. Broader enablers cited include cloud computing and data integration, genome mapping programs, and a better regulatory and reimbursement environment for NGS-based diagnostic tests.

Bioinformatics plays an important role in analyzing the complex data these tests generate, and the report lists higher cost, longer turnaround and the need for bioinformatics expertise as limitations. AI is expected to speed analysis, and automation may reduce laboratory workload. PCR is expected to grow at a 12.6% CAGR, supported by its established use, high sensitivity and faster turnaround time.

Liquid Biopsy and ctDNA Testing: Opening the Door to Solid Tumors

Polaris Market Research identifies liquid biopsy as a significant opportunity. Unlike a tissue biopsy, liquid biopsy relies on a simple blood test and can help detect cancer cells circulating in the body, which could promote MRD testing as a regular screening procedure. Researchers are developing liquid biopsy-based approaches for solid tumors, and successful commercialization is expected to fuel the market.

ctDNA testing, which detects tumor-related DNA fragments in blood, supports this expansion by allowing repeated monitoring from a simple blood sample and potentially reducing invasive procedures. The solid tumors segment is expected to grow at a 15.4% CAGR, with companies developing tests for colorectal, lung, breast and other solid tumors.

Regional Snapshot

North America dominated in 2025 with a 45.7% revenue share, supported by strong patient and physician awareness. Asia Pacific is expected to grow at a 15.2% CAGR on rising cancer prevalence, and Europe at 12.4%, driven by advanced healthcare infrastructure and investment in precision medicine.

Key Players and Competitive Focus

Key players named by Polaris Market Research include Natera, Adaptive Biotechnologies, Guardant Health, Roche, QIAGEN, Sysmex and NeoGenomics. The positioning table links Adaptive's clonoSEQ, FDA-cleared in 2018, to NGS-based immunosequencing, Natera's Signatera to tumor-informed NGS and ctDNA, and Guardant Reveal to liquid biopsy. Companies are focusing on test accuracy, expansion into solid tumors, and partnerships with hospitals, pharmaceutical companies and research institutions. Larger companies benefit from broad laboratory networks, while specialized players compete through innovative NGS, PCR and personalized MRD platforms.

Conclusion

The outlook for the minimal residual disease market is positive. Advances in NGS, liquid biopsy and ctDNA-based technologies are expected to extend use beyond blood cancers into lung, breast and colorectal cancer. Flow cytometry remains the leading technique today, while NGS is expected to grow faster. High cost, lack of standardization and limited reimbursement remain constraints, but increased standardization and improved reimbursement are likely to propel adoption.

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